Our 2023 fashion forward forecast

We live in an era of heightened environmental concern, widespread social unrest, and growing economic strain. But, we are also living in a time of incredible innovation, reimagining, and hope. Given this complex cultural zeitgeist, the fashion industry has to discontinue any complacency and play an active role in changing its relationship to the world.

“The ultimate aim for fashion leaders [this year] will be to build resiliency,” states the annual State of Fashion report which is published by Business of Fashion and McKinsey and Company. The report explores the challenges and opportunities the fashion industry will face in the year ahead.

Drawing on the report, and on recent fashion commentary and interviews with local fashion experts, we have compiled a list of the five main themes that will play a key role in shaping the fashion industry – both globally and locally – in 2023.

1. Navigating the economic slowdown

Pandemic lockdowns, geopolitical conflicts and increased interest rates have led to an economic downturn and global anxiety about an impeding recession.

“We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession in 2023. Even for countries that are not in recession, it will feel like a recession for hundreds of millions of people,” says the International Monetary Fund’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva on CBS. As inflation reaches record highs, the Business of Fashion report predicts that industry sales will grow at a slower rate than the previous year.

Two years of disruptions from the pandemic lockdowns put strain on supply chains, leaving companies with no choice but to restructure their operations, the report states. As a result many brands are nearshoring as a way to respond more quickly to consumption demands. Moving factories closer to brand headquarters offers more flexibility and opens greater growth opportunities, according to the report.

If done ethically and sustainably, nearshoring can have benefits. By moving production closer, brands emit fewer carbon emissions from transport. Further, by having factories closer to headquarters, brands can have more control over production, reducing waste and making the supply chain more transparent.

But, nearshored production isn’t always ethical production. Many brands that have moved production from Asia, now produce garments in countries that have lower labour manufacturing costs, such as Turkey and Brazil, where regulations around worker’s rights remain murky. According to Clean Clothes Campaign, garment workers in Turkey earn a quarter of the living wage.

One of the main challenges the South African fashion industry faces is electricity loadshedding. With intermittent power outages, factories are unable to operate effectively, slowing down the rate of production. “For small businesses like ours with hopes to expand, the electricity crisis has made companies hesitant to invest in South African brands,” says Esethu Cenga, co-founder of Rewoven.

In addition to the electricity crisis, South Africa is in the midst of social conflict. “There is also a lot of social tension brewing in our country at the moment,” Esethu says. With electricity cut-offs and increased inflation affecting lower-income earners more severely, the full effect of these socio-economic conflicts will have on the market is yet to be revealed.

Globally, fashion resale is also set to increase, the report explains. With rising prices, secondhand fashion is becoming more affordable than new clothes. While many online channels, such as Depop or eBay, many luxury brands, slow fashion brands, and fast fashion brands are offering resale as well.

“When you go through a downturn, customers tend to be more selective. When they’re more selective, they put their money where they see the value, and that value equation is a combination of the quality of the product, the style, and the price. It’s not just about the price,” according to chief executive of Tapestry Joanne Crevoiserat in the report.

2. Adapting to the changes in style

As people continue working from home, casualwear is expected to grow, according to the report. Accessories and formalwear sales are expected to remain low as people cut back on non-essential items in light of the economic crisis. Yet, occasion wear is expected to see some growth as in-person events return.

Particularly in South Africa, streetwear is more than an aesthetic, it’s a culture. “Casualwear has always been a part of South African culture,” says SA Fashion Week founder, Lucilla Booyzen. And so, we expect to see fashion becoming more casual this year, both on the rails and the runway.

As society’s constructions of gender change, fashion, too, rethinks its perpetuation of gender binaries. On the runway, the blurred distinctions between menswear and womenswear are evident, with many brands embracing gender-fluid designs. “Gender-neutral is not a trend, it’s a reality,” Jonathan Anderson, creative director of Loewe and founder of label JW Anderson, told Harper’s Bazaar.

We’re also seeing a rise in minimalism as fashion strips back due to economic strains. In a piece for Refinery29, writer Millie Roberts describes the latest fashion trend to hit the runway: recession-core. Although high-profile celebrities and designers are less affected by the economic climate, fashion is a reflection of society at large. So, less jewellery and simpler designs are more than an aesthetic choice – they’re a product of economic and social changes.

3. Standardising sustainability – and regulating it

Given the polycrisis (war, economic recession, climate change, biodiversity loss, inequality), sustainability becomes an increasingly important issue. In response to this, the fashion industry is expected to take bigger strides in its efforts to reduce its negative impact on both people and the planet, with some brands striving for net positive impact.

Currently, the industry lacks standardised guidance on sustainable practices. “Before brands can accurately talk about their credentials, they should dig deep into their own operations and supply chains to gather data that they can benchmark effectively,” the State of Fashion report recommends. However, the lack of guidelines and assessment tools for measuring sustainable practices makes it difficult to hold brands accountable for their actions.

“Sustainability in fashion is a huge concept,” says Lucilla. Sustainability encompasses a broad range of activities around protecting the planet and people, from cutting back carbon emissions to protecting garment workers’ rights.

Luckily, there is a host of new, ground-breaking fashion legislation on the horizon that promises to reshape the industry by writing ethical and sustainable practices into the law. For example, the FABRIC Act in the United States aims to eliminate piece-rate pay, set a fair hourly rate for garment workers, hold brands accountable for wages in their supply chain by charging penalties for wage violations, and encourage brands to reshore manufacturing. The European Union’s Ecodesign for Sustainable Products regulation aims to support the transition to a circular economy by improving EU products’ circularity, energy performance, and other environmental sustainability aspects.

While these laws are being passed in the Global North, hopefully, they will sett a precedent for many other countries to follow.

4. Conscious pan-African collaboration

Creating a sustainable, circular fashion industry requires the work of many. “There are a lot of exciting innovations happening across the continent when it comes to sustainability,” says Esethu. Esethu explains how South Africa needs to shift from relying on western practices and work with other countries in Africa to cultivate a circular economy.

“I believe breaking the psychological barrier between South Africa and the rest of the continent is major, especially as South Africans – both black and white – are still mentally colonised,” Esethu says.

5. Championing local fashion

Part of creating a sustainable fashion industry is supporting and nurturing the work of local artisans, farmers, and designers across the fashion ecosystem.

“The problem is that big retailers don’t support local designers,” Lucilla explains. Many fashion retailers use designs from previous seasons’ collections by European fashion brands instead of working with local designers to create collections.

“Our fashion designers are incredibly resilient,” Lucilla says. Despite having little support from local retailers, and along with all the setbacks designers have faced with the pandemic, loadshedding, and economic strains, the local fashion industry continues to grow as designers remain hell-bent on pursuing their craft.

So, where do we go from here?

The South African fashion industry faces many difficulties this year, particularly with regard to the economic recession and electricity crisis. Despite these adversities, our fashion industry remains, and needs to remain, resilient. More than that, we need to see more investment poured into our fashion industry, and more support for our designers, as we navigate further economic and social conflicts in the year ahead.